top of page

Are we already in an economic depression?

Updated: Sep 14, 2020

One definition of an Economic Depression is "a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%", so we are likely already in a depression. Economists are forecasting for significant improvement in the Q3-Q4 2020. But why things might not get that much better?

Almost all serious respiratory pandemics in the past had at least two waves.

First wave ends with some combination of:

- Seasonality

- Herd immunity from those already recovered

- Protective measures (lock-down, social distancing, masks, hand hygiene)

Instead, the second wave occurs with:

- Protective measures mitigation