One definition of an Economic Depression is "a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%", so we are likely already in a depression. Economists are forecasting for significant improvement in the Q3-Q4 2020. But why things might not get that much better?
Almost all serious respiratory pandemics in the past had at least two waves.
First wave ends with some combination of:
- Seasonality
- Herd immunity from those already recovered
- Protective measures (lock-down, social distancing, masks, hand hygiene)
Instead, the second wave occurs with:
- Protective measures mitigation